关键词: 棉花, MaxEnt模型, 地理信息系统, 适宜性区划, 环境因子

Abstract: As a key economic crop in China，cotton plays a vital role in the agricultural economy of Xinjiang. Against the background of intensifying climate change，the precise assessment of suitable cotton planting areas is critical for optimizing agricultural layouts. Based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS technology，this study integrated 1 402 cotton occurrence records and 47 environmental factors to construct a prediction model for the potential distribution of cotton in Xinjiang.The results indicated that slope（55.7%），≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature（25.8%），and water vapor pressure（10.0%） had a cumulative contribution rate of 91. 5% in the screening of dominant environmental factors. In addition，annual mean temperature showed the highest permutation importance value（39.6%），and together these factors constituted the core constraint system affecting the spatial distribution of cotton.Model validation showed that the average AUC value of the training set reached 0. 918，indicating that the MaxEnt model had high reliability in predicting the potential distribution of cotton in Xinjiang. Environmental response curves further revealed that cotton suitability significantly declined with increasing slope，while gentle terrain conditions with a slope of less than 2° and sufficient heat accumulation，with ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature ranging from 1 600 ℃·d to 3 200 ℃·d were necessary prerequisites for cotton growth and development. In terms of spatial zoning characteristics，the total potential suitable area for cotton in Xinjiang was 509 737 km^²，accounting for 30.61% of the total land area of Xinjiang. High⁃，moderate⁃，and low⁃suitability zones accounted for 20.43%，18.52%，and 61.05% of the total suitable area，respectively. High⁃suitability zones were concentrated at the northern foot of the Tianshan Mountains，the Ili River Valley，and the northern marginal oases of the Tarim Basin，while low⁃suitability zones were mainly located at oasis margins and other secondary habitats. This study clarifies the spatial suitability pattern and dominant factors of cotton in Xinjiang，providing a scientific basis for the optimization of local agricultural planting structures and the rational allocation of land and water resources.

Key words: Cotton, MaxEnt model, Geographic information system, Suitable zoning, Environmental factors