关键词: 川芎, 气候变化, 生态适宜区, MaxEnt模型, 未来情景

Abstract: To provide a scientific basis and decision support for the optimization of the planting area division of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort. ，the protection of its native resources and the layout of the industry，based on 137 distribution points of L.chuanxiong in China and 26 environmental factors，the jackknife method was used to select the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of L.chuanxiong.Combined with maximum entropy model（MaxEnt）and Arc geographic information system（ArcGIS），the potential suitable areas and migration trends of L.chuanxiong in China under current and future climate scenarios，including SSP1⁃2. 6（low⁃emission sustainable development pathway），SSP2⁃4. 5（medium⁃emission intermediate pathway），and SSP5⁃8. 5（high⁃emission fossil fuel⁃dependent pathway），were simulated.The results showed that the annual temperature range（Bio2），mean diurnal range（Bio7），minimum temperature of coldest month（Bio6），annual mean precipitation（Bio12），mean precipitation of coldest quarter（Bio19），mean UV⁃B of highest month（UV⁃B3）and altitude（Alt）were the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. chuanxiong. Under the current climate scenario，the total suitable⁃area of L.chuanxiong was 150.89×10⁴ km². Meanwhile，moderately⁃ and highly⁃suitable areas extended from the eastern fringe of the western Sichuan Plateau（eastern Aba and Ganzi）southeastward across the Chengdu Plain and Chongqing to northern Guizhou and northwestern Hunan，lying mainly within 102—110°E，22—30°N，the transition belt between the upper Yangtze Mountains and basins.Under the SSP1⁃2.6 scenario，the area of moderately⁃ and highly⁃suitable areas for L.chuanxiong would have an evolutionary characteristic of initial expansion followed by stabilization，significantly increasing by the 2050s（2041—2060）and returning to near⁃current levels by the end of the 21st century.Under the SSP2⁃4.5 scenario，the area of moderately⁃ and highly⁃suitable areas would continue to expand.In contrast，the SSP5⁃8.5 scenario would trigger a fluctuating response of mid⁃term expansion followed by end⁃century，reflecting that intense warming may temporarily expand potential habitats but ultimately lead to degradation of habitat suitability due to extreme climate conditions.In summary，confronted with future climate change dominated by significant warming and restructuring of precipitation patterns，the industrial planning for L.chuanxiong must adopt differentiated strategies centered on enhancing climate resilience，optimizing dynamic distribution，and strengthening risk management.

Key words: Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort., Climate change, Ecological suitable?area, Maximum entropy model, Future climate scenario