Prediction of the Potential Suitable Areas of Cynanchum chinense R.Br.under Different Climates Based on the MaxEnt Model

doi:10.15933/j.cnki.1004-3268.2025.11.006

Abstract

Abstract: To identify the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of Cynanchum chinense R.Br.and their ecological thresholds，and to quantify its potential suitable areas at different periods，the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS spatial analysis technology were utilized. By integrating information on 301 distribution sites of Cynanchum chinense R.Br.in China and bioclimatic data，predictive analysis was conducted on its potential suitable areas during two past periods［the Last Glacial Maximum（about 22 000 years ago）and the Mid‑Holocene（about 6 000 years ago）］，the current period（1970—2000），and three future periods［2030s（2021—2040），2050s（2041—2060），and 2070s （2061—2080）］. The results indicated that the area under the curve（AUC）values of the MaxEnt model for each period were all above 0.9，indicating reliable prediction results.The distribution of Cynanchum chinense R.Br.was primarily influenced by annual average temperature，temperature seasonality coefficient，precipitation seasonality coefficient，and precipitation in the wettest month. Under current period，the total suitable area for Cynanchum chinense R.Br.reached 193. 376 75×10^⁴ km^²，with a high‑suitability area of 69. 015 63×10^⁴ km^².Compared to the current period，the suitable area of Cynanchum chinense R.Br.expanded significantly during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid‑Holocene. Among the three future periods，the suitable habitat area of Cynanchum chinense R.Br.was the largest in 2070s under the SSP370（regional competitive path） climate change scenario and the smallest in 2030s under the SSP126（sustainable path）climate change scenario，but both were larger than the current period suitable habitat area. In conclusion，Cynanchum chinense R.Br.showed an expansion trend in the two past periods，and the three future periods under different climate scenarios，reflecting the phased impact of climate change，especially temperature change caused by the carbon cycle，on species distribution.

Key words: Cynanchum chinense R.Br., Climate change, MaxEnt model, Environmental factor, Habitat suitability prediction

摘要： 为明确影响鹅绒藤分布的主导环境因子及其生态阈值，量化不同时期其潜在适生区，借助MaxEnt 模型与ArcGIS 空间分析技术，融合鹅绒藤在我国的301个分布点位信息及生物气候数据，对其在2个过去时期［末次盛冰期（约22 000 a前）和全新世中期（约6 000 a前）］、当前时期（1970—2000年）以及3个未来时期［2030s（2021—2040年）、2050s（2041—2060年）、2070s（2061—2080年）］的潜在适生区进行预测分析。结果表明，MaxEnt 模型各时期受试者工作特征曲线下面积（Area under the curve，AUC）值均高于0.9，预测结果可靠。鹅绒藤的分布主要受年平均温度、温度季节性变异系数、降水量季节性变异系数和最湿月份降水量影响。当前时期下，鹅绒藤的总适生区面积达193.376 75×10^⁴ km^²，其中高适生区面积为69.015 63×10^⁴ km^²。与当前时期相对比，鹅绒藤在末次盛冰期和全新世中期适生区扩张幅度较为显著。3个未来时期中，鹅绒藤在SSP370（区域竞争路径）气候变化情景下2070s适生区面积最大，在SSP126（可持续路径）气候变化情景下2030s适生区面积最小，但均比当前时期适生区面积有所扩张。综上，鹅绒藤在2个过去时期和3个未来时期不同气候情景下均呈现扩张趋势，反映了气候变化，尤其是碳循环所引起的温度变化对物种分布的阶段性影响。

关键词: 鹅绒藤, 气候变化, MaxEnt模型, 环境因子, 适生区预测

CLC Number:

S567.23

SUN Yan, WANG Hang, NIU Lüyuan, YUAN Zhiliang, SHAO Yizhen, LEI Xiaowei, TIAN Xiangyu. Prediction of the Potential Suitable Areas of Cynanchum chinense R.Br.under Different Climates Based on the MaxEnt Model[J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2025, 54(11): 50-61.

孙妍, 王航, 牛绿原, 袁志良, 邵毅贞, 雷小伟, 田祥宇. 基于MaxEnt模型预测不同气候下鹅绒藤潜在适生区[J]. 河南农业科学, 2025, 54(11): 50-61.

Figures/Tables 11

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