Analysis of Potential Suitable Areas Variation of Cercis glabra under Different Climate Scenarios Based on MaxEnt Model

doi:10.15933/j.cnki.1004-3268.2025.01.017

Abstract

Abstract: In order to provide scientific basis for protection，introduction and transplantation of Cercis glabra，the dominant environmental factors which affected the geographical distribution of Cercis glabra and the variation trend of potential suitable areas of Cercis glabra in modern and future periods were researched. Based on the 329 distribution records of Cercis glabra in China，3 topographic variables，19 climate variables in modern times and future climate scenarios of low greenhouse gas emissions（ssp126），moderate greenhouse gas emissions（ssp245），high greenhouse gas emissions（ssp585）in the shared socio‑economic pathway（SSP），the dominant environmental factors which affected the geographical distribution of Cercis glabra were analyzed，and then the distribution，area，spatial pattern change，centroid migration trend of potential suitable areas of Cercis glabra were predicted by MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software in modern times and future climate scenarios. The results showed that the most important environmental factors were min temperature of coldest month（Bio6），annual precipitation（Bio12）and mean diurnal range（Bio2）for the distribution of potential suitable areas of Cercis glabra，the optimal ranges were -5.5—5.0 ℃，less than 1 750 mm，7.1—9.8 ℃ respectively. The total potential suitable area of Cercis glabra was 231. 46×10⁴ km² in modern times，and mainly distributed in middle‑south of East China，most areas of Central China，middle‑north of South China，east of Southwest and Northwest China，and the high，moderate，low suitable areas accounted for 24. 66%，35. 21% and 40.13% respectively. In different periods in future climate scenarios，the spatial distributions of suitable areas are similar to modern times，but the total suitable areas are more than modern times，in the climate scenarios of ssp126，ssp245，ssp585，the total potential suitable areas will increase by 0. 49%，5.02%，4.64% in 2050s（2041—2060），and increase by 2.93%，4.47%，5.45% in 2070s（2061—2080）；Under the climate scenarios of ssp245 and ssp585，the newly increased rates of the suitable areas are 0.88‑1.82 percentage points higher than those in the same period of ssp126 in 2050s and 2070s，while the lost rates are comparable or slightly smaller；Generally，the newly increased rate is 4.80%—6.71%，and the lost rate is 3.37%—4.65%，it is mainly reflected in the increase of the moderate suitable areas and the decrease of the high suitable areas；The potential suitable areas of Cercis glabra will migrate northward slightly as a whole，and the migration distances are less than 1 latitude；While its distribution center will move to northwest or southwest less than 300 km，then transfer to the border region in the south of Chongqing，north of Guizhou Province，southeast of Sichuan Province，and the meridional movements are more than latitudinal movements significantly，meanwhile，the movement distances in 2070s are less than 2050s. It showes that in the future，the meridional changes of climate environment are more than latitudinal changes，and the migration distances of the distribution centers will show a reducing trend over time；Under the climate with moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions，the climate environment will be more conducive to expansion of the suitable areas of Cercis glabra.

Key words: Cercis glabra, MaxEnt model, Environmental variable, Potential suitable areas, Centroid migration

摘要： 研究湖北紫荆地理分布的主导环境因子和当代及未来阶段潜在适生区的变化趋势，可以为湖北紫荆的保护和引种移栽提供科学依据。基于湖北紫荆在我国范围内的329个分布数据，3个地形变量，当代和未来共享社会经济路径（SSP）中的温室气体低排放量（ssp126）、温室气体中排放量（ssp245）、温室气体高排放量（ssp585）情景下的19个气候变量，利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对影响湖北紫荆地理分布的主导环境因子进行分析，并对当代及未来气候情景下的湖北紫荆潜在适生区的分布、面积、空间格局变化、质心迁移趋势进行预测。结果表明，影响湖北紫荆潜在适生区分布的主导环境因子为最冷月最低气温（Bio6）、年降水量（Bio12）和平均日温差（Bio2），最佳适宜范围分别为-5.5~5.0 ℃、小于1 750 mm、7.1~9.8 ℃。在当代湖北紫荆潜在适生区总面积为231.46×104 km2，主要分布在我国华东地区中南部、华中大部、华南中北部、西南地区东部、西北地区东部，其中高、中、低适生区面积分别占比24.66%、35.21%和40.13%。在未来不同时期不同气候情景下，适生区的空间分布与当代相差不大，但总适生面积较当代均有所增加，在ssp126、ssp245、ssp585 情景下潜在适生区总面积在2050s（2041—2060年）分别增加0.49%、5.02%和4.64%，在2070s（2061—2080年）分别增加2.93%、4.47%和5.45%；在ssp245和ssp585情景下的2050s和2070s，适生区新增率较ssp126情景下相同时期的新增率偏高0.88~1.82 百分点，而丧失率与ssp126 情景下的丧失率相当或略偏小；整体而言，适生区新增率为4.80%~6.71%，丧失率为3.37%~4.65%，主要体现为中适生区面积增加，而高适生区面积明显减少；湖北紫荆潜在适生区均整体向北小幅迁移，迁移距离小于1个纬度；适生中心向西北或西南方向移动，移动距离小于300 km，整体位于重庆南部、贵州北部、四川东南部的交界地带，其经向移动幅度均显著大于纬向移动幅度，且在2070s的移动距离小于2050s的移动距离。表明在未来阶段，气候环境经向变化大于纬向变化，且适生中心迁移距离随时间有减小的趋势；在温室气体中、高排放量的气候背景下，气候环境更有利于湖北紫荆适生区的扩张。

关键词: 湖北紫荆, MaxEnt模型, 环境变量, 潜在适生区, 质心迁移

CLC Number:

S685

ZHANG Yucui, YAN Caixia, ZHAO Lin, TAN Jianghong, WANG Cheng, YUAN Liang. Analysis of Potential Suitable Areas Variation of Cercis glabra under Different Climate Scenarios Based on MaxEnt Model[J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2025, 54(1): 160-169.

张玉翠, 闫彩霞, 赵琳, 谭江红, 王成, 袁良. 基于MaxEnt 模型的不同气候情景下湖北紫荆潜在适生区变化分析[J]. 河南农业科学, 2025, 54(1): 160-169.

Figures/Tables 7

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