Abstract: To provide a scientific basis and decision support for the optimization of the planting area division of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort. ，the protection of its native resources and the layout of the industry，based on 137 distribution points of L.chuanxiong in China and 26 environmental factors，the jackknife method was used to select the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of L.chuanxiong.Combined with maximum entropy model（MaxEnt）and Arc geographic information system（ArcGIS），the potential suitable areas and migration trends of L.chuanxiong in China under current and future climate scenarios，including SSP1⁃2. 6（low⁃emission sustainable development pathway），SSP2⁃4. 5（medium⁃emission intermediate pathway），and SSP5⁃8. 5（high⁃emission fossil fuel⁃dependent pathway），were simulated.The results showed that the annual temperature range（Bio2），mean diurnal range（Bio7），minimum temperature of coldest month（Bio6），annual mean precipitation（Bio12），mean precipitation of coldest quarter（Bio19），mean UV⁃B of highest month（UV⁃B3）and altitude（Alt）were the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. chuanxiong. Under the current climate scenario，the total suitable⁃area of L.chuanxiong was 150.89×10⁴ km². Meanwhile，moderately⁃ and highly⁃suitable areas extended from the eastern fringe of the western Sichuan Plateau（eastern Aba and Ganzi）southeastward across the Chengdu Plain and Chongqing to northern Guizhou and northwestern Hunan，lying mainly within 102—110°E，22—30°N，the transition belt between the upper Yangtze Mountains and basins.Under the SSP1⁃2.6 scenario，the area of moderately⁃ and highly⁃suitable areas for L.chuanxiong would have an evolutionary characteristic of initial expansion followed by stabilization，significantly increasing by the 2050s（2041—2060）and returning to near⁃current levels by the end of the 21st century.Under the SSP2⁃4.5 scenario，the area of moderately⁃ and highly⁃suitable areas would continue to expand.In contrast，the SSP5⁃8.5 scenario would trigger a fluctuating response of mid⁃term expansion followed by end⁃century，reflecting that intense warming may temporarily expand potential habitats but ultimately lead to degradation of habitat suitability due to extreme climate conditions.In summary，confronted with future climate change dominated by significant warming and restructuring of precipitation patterns，the industrial planning for L.chuanxiong must adopt differentiated strategies centered on enhancing climate resilience，optimizing dynamic distribution，and strengthening risk management.

Key words: Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort., Climate change, Ecological suitable?area, Maximum entropy model, Future climate scenario

摘要： 为了给川芎种植区划优化、道地资源保护及产业布局提供科学依据与决策支撑，基于137条全国川芎分布点位数据和26个环境因子，利用刀切法选取影响川芎分布的关键环境变量，并结合最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和地理信息系统软件（ArcGIS），模拟当前及未来气候情景［SSP1-2.6（低排放，可持续发展路径）、SSP2-4.5（中等排放，中间路径）和SSP5-8.5（高排放，化石燃料依赖路径）］川芎在中国的潜在适宜区及迁移趋势。结果表明，昼夜温差月均值（Bio2）、年温度变化范围（Bio7）、最冷月最低温度（Bio6）、年平均降水量（Bio12）、最冷季度降水量（Bio19）、UV-B辐射最强月份均值（UV-B3）和海拔（Alt）为主导川芎分布的环境因子。当前气候情景下，川芎总适生区面积为150.89×10⁴ km²，中级及以上适生区西起川西高原东缘（阿坝、甘孜东部），向东南经成都平原、重庆，延伸至贵州北部、湖南西北部，整体位于102~110°E、22~30°N的长江上游山区与盆地过渡带。SSP1-2.6低排放情景下，川芎中级及以上适生区面积呈现先增后稳的演变特征，2050s（2041—2060年）显著扩大，到21世纪末基本恢复至当前水平。SSP2-4.5中等排放情景下，川芎中级及以上适生区面积持续增加。SSP5-8.5高排放情景下，川芎的中级及以上适生区呈现中期扩张、末期收缩的波动型响应，反映强烈增温虽在中期可扩大潜在适生范围，但长期极端气候将导致生境适宜性退化。综上所述，面对未来由显著升温和降水格局重构主导的气候变化，川芎的产业规划必须依据不同情景，采取以增强气候韧性、优化动态布局、强化风险防控为核心的差异化策略。

关键词: 川芎, 气候变化, 生态适宜区, MaxEnt模型, 未来情景