Analysis on the Climate Suitability of Rape Growing Season in Hubei Province under Climate Warming

doi:10.15933/j.cnki.1004-3268.2024.05.009

Abstract

Abstract: In order to clarify the climate suitability during the rape growing season of Hubei Province,the climate suitability models were constructed during the rape growing season of Hubei Province,which was based on the daily data of average temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours of 76 stations in Hubei Province from 1963 to 1993 and from 1993 to 2023. ArcGIS software was used to analyze the spatio‑temporal characteristics of climate resources and climate suitability during the rape growing season of Hubei Province in 1963—1993 and 1993—2023.The results showed that,during the rape growing season of Hubei Province,average temperature was higher in the south and lower in the northwest and southwest;Accumulated precipitation was more in the southeast and southwest，less in the northwest;Accumulated sunshine hours decreased from north to southwest.On the whole,average temperature exhibited an increasing trend,accumulated precipitation and sunshine hours exhibited a decreasing trend.The low value of temperature suitability was in the south part of the northwest and west part of the southwest,and the high value was in the other areas in Hubei Province;Precipitation suitability was higher in the middle and north parts while lower in the southeast part；Sunshine suitability decreased from northeast to southwest. Temperature suitability and precipitation suitability exhibited an increasing trend,while sunshine suitability exhibited a decreasing trend.According to the value of comprehensive climate suitability,Hubei Province was divided into the most suitable，suitable and unsuitable areas to plant rape by natural breaks of ArcGIS software.The most suitable areas were distributed mainly over the middle and east parts of Hubei Province and Shiyan in the northwest，while the unsuitable areas were distributed mainly in high altitude areas of the west in Hubei Province,which was only distributed in the northeast of Shennongjia in 1993—2023.The most suitable areas accounted for about 70.8% of the total areas in Hubei in 1963—1993,about 9.7% of the suitable areas changed to the most suitable areas in 1993—2023,while the unsuitable areas decreased by about 3.8%.Under the climate warming,heat and precipitation resources are more suitable for rape growth,but sunshine resources are not suitable for rape growth gradually，the climate resources are generally suitable for rape growth in Hubei Province,and the area increased which is suitable to plant rape.

Key words: Rape, Climate warming, Climate suitability, Climate division, Hubei Province

摘要： 为明确湖北省油菜生长季的气候适宜性，利用湖北省76个国家气象观测站1963—1993年和1993—2023年2个气候年代的逐日平均气温、降水量、日照时数数据，构建湖北省油菜生长季气候适宜度模型，利用ArcGIS软件对1963—1993年、1993—2023年2个气候年代的湖北省油菜生长季的气候资源和气候适宜度的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明，湖北省油菜生长季气候资源变化特征为平均气温南部高，西北部、西南部低；累计降水量东南部、西南部多，西北部少；累计日照时数由北部向西南部递减。整体上看，平均气温呈上升趋势，累计降水量和日照时数均呈减少趋势。气温适宜度低值区位于西北部的南部和西南部的西部，其他地区高；降水适宜度中北部高、东南部低；日照适宜度由东北部向西南部递减。气温适宜度和降水适宜度均呈增加趋势，日照适宜度呈减少趋势。利用ArcGIS自然断点法依据综合气候适宜度，将湖北省划分为最适宜、适宜和不适宜油菜种植区域。最适宜区主要分布在湖北省的中部、东部的大部地区以及西北部的十堰，不适宜区主要分布在西部高海拔区域，1993—2023年仅神农架东北部为不适宜区。1963—1993年最适宜区面积约占湖北省总面积的70.8%，1993—2023年有9.7%的区域由适宜区转为最适宜区，而不适宜区面积减少了3.8%。在气候变暖的背景下，湖北省油菜生长季热量资源和降水资源更加适宜油菜的生长，日照资源则逐渐不利于油菜的生长，气候资源总体适宜油菜的生长，且适宜油菜种植的区域面积呈增加趋势。

关键词: 油菜, 气候变暖, 气候适宜性, 气候区划, 湖北省

CLC Number:

S565.4

ZHANG Yucui, YUAN Liang, WANG Pei, YAN Caixia, ZOU Congpeng. Analysis on the Climate Suitability of Rape Growing Season in Hubei Province under Climate Warming[J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2024, 53(5): 80-91.

张玉翠, 袁良, 王培, 闫彩霞, 邹从鹏. 气候变暖背景下湖北省油菜生长季气候适宜性分析[J]. 河南农业科学, 2024, 53(5): 80-91.

References

［1］《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.第三次气候变化国家评估报告［M］.北京：科学出版社，2015.

Committee of the Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change.The Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change［M］.Beijing：Science Press，2015.

［2］胡琦，潘学标，邵长秀，等.1961—2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征［J］.中国农业气象，2014，35（2）：119‑127.

HU Q，PAN X B，SHAO C X，et al.Distribution and variation of China agricultural heat resources in 1961—2010［J］.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2014，35（2）：119‑127.

［3］孙芳，林而达，武艳娟.宁夏气候变化及其对马铃薯生产的影响［J］.中国农学通报，2008，24（4）：465‑471.

SUN F，LIN E D，WU Y J.Climate change and its impacts on potato production in Ningxia［J］.Chinese Agricultural

Science Bulletin，2008，24（4）：465‑471.

［4］殷剑敏.气候变化对南丰县蜜桔种植分布的影响［J］.中国农业气象，2007，28（2）：190‑194.

YIN J M.Impact of climate change on planting distribution of orange in Nanfeng County of Jiangxi Province［J］.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2007，28（2）：190‑194.

［5］伍琼，陈曦，曹强，等.1961—2020年大别山区农业气候资源变化特征分析［J］.河南农业科学，2022，51（2）：75‑85.

WU Q，CHEN X，CAO Q，et al.Variation characteristics of agricultural climatic resources in area of Dabie Mountains in China from 1961 to 2020［J］.Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences，2022，51（2）：75‑85.

［6］李菲菲，汤军，高贤君，等.基于GEE的气候变化对豫北地区冬小麦播种面积与产量影响研究［J］.河南农业科学，2022，51（8）：150‑165.

LI F F，TANG J，GAO X J，et al.Analysis of climate change effects on winter wheat sowing area and yield in northern Henan based on GEE［J］.Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences，2022，51（8）：150‑165.

［7］赵彦茜，肖登攀，柏会子，等.华北平原冬小麦和夏玉米气候适宜性［J］.生态学杂志，2020，39（7）：2251‑2262.

ZHAO Y X，XIAO D P，BAI H Z，et al.Climatic suitability of winter wheat and summer maize in the North China Plain［J］. Chinese Journal of Ecology，2020，39（7）：2251‑2262.

［8］王娟，焦美玲，韩晶，等.基于GIS的庆阳市苹果种植气候适宜性区划［J］.农业灾害研究，2023，13（3）：111‑113，190.

WANG J，JIAO M L，HAN J，et al.Study on climatic suitability zoning of apple planting in Qingyang city based on GIS［J］.Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology，2023，13（3）：111‑113，190.

［9］李东育，刘贝，徐养诚，等. 基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS的藜麦气候适宜性研究［J］.天津农业科学，2022，28 （12）：82‑85.

LI D Y，LIU B，XU Y C，et al.Climate suitability of quinoa based on MaxEnt model and ArcGIS［J］.Tianjin Agricultural Sciences，2022，28（12）：82‑85.

［10］谭文，杨世琼，左晋，等.基于相对气候适宜度指数的贵州辣椒产量动态预报模型构建［J］.贵州农业科学，2023，51（1）：74‑79.

TAN W，YANG S Q，ZUO J，et al.Construction of dynamic forecasting model for pepper yield based on relative climatic suitability index in Guizhou［J］.Guizhou Agricultural Sciences，2023，51（1）：74‑79.

［11］张莉，范光奖，王远，等.近30年桂阳烟区气候资源及适宜性评价［J］.湖南农业科学，2023（6）：55‑60.

ZHANG L，FAN G J，WANG Y，et al.Climate change and suitability evaluation in Guiyang tobacco‑growing

area in recent 30 years［J］.Hunan Agricultural Sciences，2023（6）：55‑60.

［12］HOLZKÄMPER A，CALANCA P，FUHRER J.Identifying climatic limitations to grain maize yield potentials using a suitability evaluation approach［J］.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology，2013，168：149‑159.

［13］胡峰，张建涛，张杰，等.河南省芝麻种植气候适宜度时空变化研究［J］.河南农业科学，2023，52（8）：56‑68.

HU F，ZHANG J T，ZHANG J，et al.Study on spatio‑temporal variation of climatic suitability of sesame planting in Henan Province［J］.Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences，2023，52（8）：56‑68.

［14］柳芳，薛庆禹，黎贞发.天津棉花气候适宜度变化特征及其产量动态预报［J］.中国农业气象，2014，35（1）：48‑54.

LIU F，XUE Q Y，LI Z F.Climatic suitability variation and yield dynamic prediction model of cotton in Tianjin［J］.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2014，35（1）：48‑54.

［15］郝玲，任曙霞，张佩，等.基于气候适宜度的水稻产量动态预报模型［J］.江西农业学报，2023，35（8）：1‑7.

HAO L，REN S X，ZHANG P，et al.Dynamic forecasting model for rice yield based on climatic suitability［J］.Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi，2023，35（8）：1‑7.

［16］邵步粉，蒋滔，林凌，等.基于GIS的福建省茉莉花气候适宜性区划与评估［J］.气象科技，2022，50（6）：885‑890.

SHAO B F，JIANG T，LIN L，et al.Climate suitability zoning and assessment of jasmine in Fujian Province based on GIS［J］.Meteorological Science and Technology，2022，50（6）：885‑890.

［17］何亮，毛留喜. 气候变化背景下东北大豆种植区气候适宜性变化［J］.中国生态农业学报（中英文），2023，31（5）：690‑698.

HE L，MAO L X.Change of soybean climatic suitability in Northeast China under climate change［J］.Chinese Journal of Eco‑Agriculture，2023，31（5）：690‑698.

［18］郭申伯，刘福昊，王笛，等.基于微气候适宜度指数构建番茄生长速率模拟模型［J］.中国农业气象，2023，44（7）：611‑623.

GUO S B，LIU F H，WANG D，et al.Construction of A tomato growth rate simulation model based on climate

suitability index［J］.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2023，44（7）：611‑623.

［19］梁轶，屈振江，鲁成，等.陕西北扩区苹果种植的气候适宜性及潜力分析［J］.中国农业气象，2023，44（5）：347‑360.

LIANG Y，QU Z J，LU C，et al.Climatic suitability and potential analysis of apple planting in northern expansion area of Shaanxi Province［J］.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2023，44（5）：347‑360.

［20］武荣盛，吴瑞芬，金林雪，等.内蒙古自治区日光温室气候适宜性区划［J］.应用生态学报，2023，34（5）：1305‑1312.

WU R S，WU R F，JIN L X，et al.Climate suitability division of solar greenhouse in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region，China［J］.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology，2023，34（5）：1305‑1312.

［21］张文英，朱建强，郭显平，等.花果期持续受渍对油菜生长、产量与含油量的影响［J］.长江流域资源与环境，2003，12（2）：194‑197.

ZHANG W Y，ZHU J Q，GUO X P，et al.Influence upon growing and yield and oiliness content of rape in flower‑pod stage under different waterlogged stress［J］.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin，2003，12（2）：194‑197.

［22］胡安霞，田青，曹鲁，等.气象条件对油菜生产影响的分析：以安徽宣城为例［J］.中国农学通报，2018，34 （22）：109‑112.

HU A X，TIAN Q，CAO L，et al.The impact of meteorological conditions on rape production：Taking Xuancheng as an example［J］.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin，2018，34（22）：109‑112.

［23］祝梦全.气候变化对江苏省油菜气候资源及适宜度的影响［D］.南京：南京信息工程大学，2023.

ZHU M Q.Effects of climate change on the climatic resources and suitability of oilseed rape in Jiangsu Province［D］.Nanjing：Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology，2023.

［24］邓环，秦鹏程，刘志雄，等.湖北省油菜生长发育期间气象条件的年度变化分析［J］.湖南农业科学，2021 （2）：33‑37.

DENG H，QIN P C，LIU Z X，et al.Analysis on annual changes of meteorological conditions for growth and development of rapeseed in Hubei［J］.Hunan Agricultural Sciences，2021（2）：33‑37.

［25］陆魁东，彭莉莉，黄晚华，等.气候变化背景下湖南油菜气象灾害风险评估［J］.中国农业气象，2013，34 （2）：191‑196.

LU K D，PENG L L，HUANG W H，et al.Meteorological disaster risk assessment of oilseed rape under climate change conditions［J］.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2013，34（2）：191‑196.

［26］张建军，陈晓艺，马晓群.安徽油菜气候适宜度评价指标的建立与应用［J］.中国农学通报，2012，28（13）：155‑158.

ZHANG J J，CHEN X Y，MA X Q.Establishment and application of climatic suitability indicator of rape in Anhui Province［J］.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin，2012，28（13）：155‑158.
［27］吴利红，娄伟平，柳苗，等.油菜花期降水适宜度变化趋势及风险评估［J］.中国农业科学，2011，44（3）：620‑626.
WU L H，LOU W P，LIU M，et al.Changes of precipitation suitability and assessment of yield loss risk of cole at flowering period［J］.Scientia Agricultura Sinica，2011，44（3）：620‑626.
［28］珠杰桑布，张存杰，王兴，等.西藏日喀则地区马铃薯气候适宜度模型分析及其时空变化特征研究［J］.干旱地区农业研究，2023，41（1）：185‑192.
ZHUJIE S B，ZHANG C J，WANG X，et al.Analysis of potato climate suitability model and its temporal and spatial variation characteristics in Shigatse，Tibet［J］.Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas，2023，41（1）：185‑192.
［29］马耀绒，许伟峰，韩蓓蓓，等.近30年渭南夏玉米气候适宜度研究［J］.陕西气象，2023（3）：49‑54.
MA Y R，XU W F，HAN B B，et al.Study on climatic suitability of summer maize in Weinan in recent 30 years［J］.Journal of Shaanxi Meteorology，2023（3）：49‑54.
［30］马树庆. 吉林省农业气候研究［M］.北京：气象出版社，1996：33.
MA S Q，Research on agricultural climate in Jilin Province［M］.Beijing：China Meteorological Press，1996：33.
［31］许学莲，雷玉红，曹雪枫，等.1981—2018年柴达木盆地作物生长季气象要素时空变化特征分析［J］.湖北农业科学，2021，60（18）：42‑49.
XU X L，LEI Y H，CAO X F，et al.Analysis on the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of meteorological elements during the crop growing season in Qaidam basin from 1981 to 2018［J］.Hubei Agricultural Sciences，2021，60（18）：42‑49.
［32］黄稳清，黄洪宇，蒋范晨，等.气候变化影响下我国冬油菜物候期时空演变分析［J］.贵州大学学报（自然科学版），2022，39（4）：34‑41.
HUANG W Q，HUANG H Y，JIANG F C，et al.Spatial‑temporal evolution of winter rapeseed phenology under climate change in China［J］.Journal of Guizhou University（Natural Sciences），2022，39（4）：34‑41.

[1]	CUI Xiaoyue, SHANG Hongquan, LÜ Zhongwei, LOU Yusui, ZHANG Ke, FAN Hongjie, WU Wenying, ZHANG Xiaofeng. Cloning and Expression Analysis of NF‑YB3 Gene from Vitis vinifera [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2024, 53(4): 111-118.
[2]	CAO Liru, LIANG Xiaohan, MA Chenchen, YE Feiyu, PANG Yunyun, LI Weiya, ZHANG Xin, LU Xiaomin. Expression and Functional Analysis of Maize Stress Response Gene ZmTPR1 [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2024, 53(1): 12-21.
[3]	HU Feng, ZHANG Jiantao, ZHANG Jie, GAO Tongmei, ZHAO Qiaoli, ZHENG Guoqing, LI Guoqiang, LIU Lijie. Study on Spatio‑Temporal Variation of Climatic Suitability of Sesame Planting in Henan Province [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2023, 52(8): 56-68.
[4]	LOU Yusui, SHANG Hongquan, FAN Hongjie, LI Zheng, ZHANG Ke, CUI Xiaoyue, LÜ Zhongwei. Effects of Different Color Fruit Bags on Berry Russet and Quality of Shine Muscat Grape during Ripening [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2023, 52(8): 105-114.
[5]	FAN Xiaoqing, ZHAO Xinyue, WANG Yuwen, ZHANG Liangyao, YUAN Jincheng, LIU Yinghui, WENG Qiaoyun. Effect of Intercropping of Silage Corn and Forage Rape on Forage Crop Yield and Quality [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2023, 52(7): 40-51.
[6]	ZHANG Jing, SU Sheng, MAO Wei, ZENG Hongyu, QIU Jianrong, ZHAO Haitao. Fertilization Effect of Rapeseed under Different Soil Fertilities in Region along Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2023, 52(7): 60-69.
[7]	WEI Quanquan, GU Xiaofeng, GOU Jiulan, ZHANG Meng, RAO Yong, XIAO Huagui. Effect of Nitrogen Fertilizer Combined with Organic Materials on Microbial Community in Winter Rapeseed⁃Maize Rotation in Yellow Soil [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2023, 52(6): 41-50.
[8]	ZENG Lili, JIANG Junsong. Construction and Validation of Critical Phosphorus Concentration Dilution Curve Model in Rape [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2023, 52(4): 51-59.
[9]	LI Rihui, ZHONG Xiaomin, DUAN Xinyao, YAN Yasai, WANG Lin, WANG Hua, LI Hua. The Impact of Simplified Ecological Cultivation Model on the Soil Quality of Italian Riesling Vineyard [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2023, 52(12): 127-135.
[10]	LOU Yusui, SHANG Hongquan, FAN Hongjie, LI Zheng, ZHANG Ke, LÜ Zhongwei, ZHANG Xiaofeng, WU Wenying. Changes in Berry Peel Structure and Related Substances of Shine Muscat Grape with Different Berry Russet Levels [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2022, 51(9): 105-113.
[11]	WU Zhaohui, SUN Jiping, GUO Fangyang, WANG Dian, LI Qian, LI Jianhua. Vegetable and Fertilizer Dual‑Purpose Rapeseed Genotypes Suitable for Winter Fallow Tobacco Fields [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2022, 51(7): 51-60.
[12]	LOU Yusui, ZHANG Xiaofeng, LI Zheng, SHANG Hongquan, FAN Hongjie, LÜ Zhongwei. Effect of Different Yield Load on Quality Development during Delayed Harvest of Shine Muscat Grape [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2022, 51(6): 111-118.
[13]	WANG Xingwang, ZHENG Hanyuan, WANG Suqing. Identification of Diseases and Insect Pests of Malu Grape Based on CSJMM⁃AS⁃GAC [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2022, 51(6): 154-163.
[14]	LÜ Zefang, WANG Rong, GUO Xianjin, GAO Zhenzhen, LIU Zhangyong, JIN Tao. Effects of Returned Straw Types on N2O Emission and nosZ‑denitrifying Bacterial Community Structure in Paddy Soil [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2021, 50(8): 66-75.
[15]	SONG Shen, SHAN Shouming, LI Qian, LIU Sifan. Effects of Sink-Source Relationship on Anthocyanin Accumulation and Quality of Beimei Grape [J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2021, 50(6): 109-115.