Parameter Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization of Sesame Phenology Simulation Model

doi:10.15933/j.cnki.1004-3268.2024.09.017

Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences ›› 2024, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (9): 159-170.DOI: 10.15933/j.cnki.1004-3268.2024.09.017

• Agricultural Information and Engineering and Agricultural Product Processing • Previous Articles Next Articles

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization of Sesame Phenology Simulation Model

GUAN Haoyue^1,2，LI Mengyao^1,2，LI Guoqiang²，ZHANG Jiantao²，GAO Tongmei³，CHEN Xianguan⁴，ZHANG Wenyu⁵，WU Jinzhi¹

（1.College of Agriculture，Henan University of Science and Technology，Luoyang 471023，China；2.Institute of Agricultural Information Technology，Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Huang‑Huai‑Hai Smart Agricultural Technology，Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs，Zhengzhou 450002，China；3.Sesame Research Center，Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Zhengzhou 450002，China；4.College of Agriculture，Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University，Fuzhou 350002，China；5.Wuxi Branch of Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Wuxi 214174，China）

Received:2023-09-12 Published:2024-09-15 Online:2024-11-04

芝麻发育期模拟模型参数敏感性分析与优化

关皓月^1,2，李梦瑶^1,2，李国强²，张建涛²，高桐梅³，陈先冠⁴，张文宇⁵，吴金芝¹

（1.河南科技大学农学院，河南洛阳 471023；2.河南省农业科学院农业信息技术研究所/农业农村部黄淮海智慧农业技术重点实验室，河南郑州 450002；3.河南省农业科学院芝麻研究中心，河南郑州 450002；4.福建农林大学农学院，福建福州 350002；5.江苏省农业科学院无锡分院，江苏无锡 214174）

通讯作者: 李国强（1984-），男，河南林州人，研究员，博士，主要从事作物系统模拟与智能装备研究。E-mail：hnagri@qq.com 吴金芝（1978-），女，河南潢川人，副教授，博士，主要从事作物高产生理生态研究。E-mail：yywujz@126.com
作者简介:关皓月（1999-），女，辽宁鞍山人，在读硕士研究生，研究方向：农业系统模拟与人工智能。E-mail：ghy167x@126.com
基金资助:
河南省农业科学院自主创新项目（2024ZC073）；河南省农科院农业信息技术研究所科技创新领军人才培育计划项目（2021KJCX02）；国家自然科学基金青年基金项目（31301239）

Abstract

Abstract: Phenological development is critical for crop field management.In order to accurately predict the development process of sesame by quantifying the response of sesame physiological processes to temperature and photoperiod,a sesame phenology simulation model(SPSM)based on clock model theory was constructed.The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed by extened fourier amplitude sensitivity test(EFAST)to determine the high sensitivity parameters affecting the development process.The parameters of four sesame varieties were determined by the Monte Carlo optimization method and verified in the main sesame producing areas of Henan,Hubei,Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in China.The results showed that the average global sensitivity indexes of optimum temperature(T_opt),basic development coefficient(k),and critical day length(D_c)were the highest among the seven cultivar parameters of SPSM.The R² of the simulated and observed values of Yuzhi 4,Zhongzhi 22,Wanzhi 10 and Ganzhi 7 were0.999,RMSEwas0.50 to 1.32 d,NRMSE was1.06%—3.02%,and d value was 0.999.By independent verification,the standard deviations of the development period simulations and observations of the above four sesame varieties were0—7.65 d,R²were 0.978,0.988,0.992,0.989,RMSEwere5.07,4.43,3.07,4.24 d,NRMSE and Willmott consistency(d)were5.87%—9.44% and0.996—0.997,respectively.The optimized SPSM can well simulate the development dynamics of sesame in the main producing areas of sesame in China.

Key words: Sesame, The clock model, Phenology simulation, Sensitivity analysis, EFAST

摘要： 作物发育期是制定作物田间管理决策的重要依据。为准确预测芝麻发育进程，通过量化芝麻生理过程对温度和光周期的响应规律，构建了以钟模型理论为基础的芝麻发育期模拟模型（Sesame phenology simulation model，简称SPSM），采用扩展傅里叶幅度检验法（EFAST）分析参数敏感性，以确定影响芝麻发育进程的高敏感性参数。采用蒙特卡罗寻优法率定4个芝麻品种的参数，并在河南、湖北、安徽和江西等芝麻主产区进行验证。结果表明，模型的7个品种参数中，发育阶段最适温度（T_opt）、基本发育系数（k）和临界日长（D_c）平均全局敏感性指数最高。经品种参数率定，豫芝4、中芝22、皖芝10和赣芝7的全发育期模拟值与观测值的R²均为0.999，RMSE为0.50~1.32 d，NRMSE为1.06%~3.02%，Willmott一致度（d）均为0.999。经独立验证，上述4个芝麻品种发育期模拟值与观测值的标准差在0~7.65 d，R²分别为0.978、0.984、0.992、0.989，RMSE分别为5.07、4.43、3.07、4.24 d，NRMSE和d值分别在5.87%~9.44%和0.996~0.997。优化后的SPSM能够较好地模拟我国芝麻主产区芝麻的发育动态。

关键词: 芝麻, 钟模型, 发育期模拟, 敏感性分析, EFAST

CLC Number:

S126
S565.3

GUAN Haoyue, LI Mengyao, LI Guoqiang, ZHANG Jiantao, GAO Tongmei, CHEN Xianguan, ZHANG Wenyu, WU Jinzhi. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization of Sesame Phenology Simulation Model[J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences, 2024, 53(9): 159-170.

关皓月, 李梦瑶, 李国强, 张建涛, 高桐梅, 陈先冠, 张文宇, 吴金芝. 芝麻发育期模拟模型参数敏感性分析与优化[J]. 河南农业科学, 2024, 53(9): 159-170.

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Parameter Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization of Sesame Phenology Simulation Model

芝麻发育期模拟模型参数敏感性分析与优化

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